16 April 2023 by Mondo2.0

Let’s analyze together “The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth”

How can we bring the debate on A.I. and ChatBots onto a concrete level? By briefly analyzing together the extraordinary, extremely timely study carried out by Jan Hatzius, Joseph Briggs, Devesh Kodnani and Giovanni Pierdomenico, entitled “The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth”, produced for Goldman Sachs: a major change just around the corner brings with it indicators, forecasts and statistics that can help us understand and anticipate its scale.

We will do so by briefly quoting, in natural language, some of the main statements contained in the research mentioned above:

Since 2021, private investment in the USA in the development of services based on artificial intelligence has totaled 53 billion dollars, while globally investments have reached 94 billion dollars.

These figures confirm that this path, based on A.I., is irreversible; we are well beyond startups and laboratory experiments. Regulations and rules designed to protect individual users and their data are welcome, as are rules and tools to define and monitor the responses provided by these intelligent systems, but all this will have to take place in an “irreversible”, global context with a high technological and social impact, based on A.I.

… one quarter of current work activities in the USA could be automated by artificial intelligence, particularly in administrative work (46%) and legal professions (44%), with low exposure for highly physical occupations, in construction (6%) and maintenance (4%).

Once again, numbers are more effective than any debate. A.I. services capable of understanding written text, images and videos and, consequently, providing accurate answers through real-time access to billions of pieces of information (Big Data), will soon be extremely efficient and effective, competitive with what our species produces every day, for all professions that do not require high physical intensity.

Applying our estimated productivity increase, it can be hypothesized that widespread adoption of AI could lead to a 7% increase in GDP, or nearly 7 trillion dollars.

It is evident, extremely evident, that replacing human work with surrogate intelligences will lead to a very high, rapid and widespread diffusion of “automated work”, with fewer job opportunities for those who perform repetitive jobs that are not “highly physical”.

Is “our” job at risk? Absolutely yes. I invite skeptics to watch this video, in which the broadcaster Kuwait News uses a virtual female journalist in its news program.

This process must be interpreted within a path that has already been underway for decades, a global process of digital transformation of professions and social roles. The chart below, also taken from the research discussed in this article, shows how, since 1940, technological innovation has created new occupations and how these account for the bulk of employment growth; in simple terms, “every cloud has a silver lining”, or rather, “innovations do not merely make jobs disappear; very often they also create just as many new ones”. For fairness, I believe it is equally appropriate to point out that these professional disruptions, often extremely rapid, can harm certain social groups or categories while benefiting others that are better prepared and more inclined to change.

Despite significant uncertainty around the potential of generative AI, its ability to generate content indistinguishable from human-created output and to break down communication barriers between humans and machines reflects a major advance with potentially large macroeconomic effects.

In the introductory part of the research, particularly in the sentence quoted above, several axiomatic truths are stated:

Generative A.I. can produce content similar to that created by our species, indistinguishable from it. Our skepticism about these new technologies is based precisely on the fact that, for the first time, humans are confronting something potentially more intelligent than themselves (albeit in specific fields and within clearly defined boundaries).

The evolution of artificial intelligence can break down communication barriers between humans and machines. Today, the nodes of the Network, on the Internet, are only us. Probably, within a few years, some software will communicate with us as “our equals”.

The macroeconomic effects, in terms of productivity, service improvement, introduction of new professions and abandonment and transformation of traditional professions, will be significant, beyond our expectations.

For readers for whom indices and statistics are not enough, or are of no interest, I suggest watching this video, produced by the Japanese companies Gatebox & Line. Hikari is a virtual girlfriend who follows our protagonist throughout his day, comforts and motivates him, and manages his welcome home through home automation; imagine the evolution of these services, in which the hologram has perfectly human features (at 1:1 scale) and, through A.I. services, can quickly respond to every potential need or question.

We are well beyond the developments in GDP and professions mentioned above; we are entering a new social and emotional path with unprecedented relationships between humans and machines, where Hikari is the new virtual girlfriend your grandson will bring home in 2040.

This and much more awaits us in our new World 2.0.

Mondoduepuntozero

While thanking Goldman Sachs and the researchers Jan Hatzius, Joseph Briggs, Devesh Kodnani and Giovanni Pierdomenico, who produced “The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth”, for the data considered in this article, we remind you that Mondoduepuntozero is only a game, a walk to take together on the Net, aimed at highlighting the changes brought about by new technologies and the Internet.